Government restrictions and difficulty getting approval for various medical devices is expected to impede market growth. The stringency of approval by regulatory authorities is accompanied by the high cost of smart pills to challenge the growth of the smart pills market. However, the demand for speedy diagnosis, and improving reimbursement policies are likely to reveal market opportunities.
Besides Adderall, I also purchased on Silk Road 5x250mg pills of armodafinil. The price was extremely reasonable, 1.5btc or roughly $23 at that day’s exchange rate; I attribute the low price to the seller being new and needing feedback, and offering a discount to induce buyers to take a risk on him. (Buyers bear a large risk on Silk Road since sellers can easily physically anonymize themselves from their shipment, but a buyer can be found just by following the package.) Because of the longer active-time, I resolved to test the armodafinil not during the day, but with an all-nighter.
Similarly, we could try applying Nick Bostrom’s reversal test and ask ourselves, how would we react to a virus which had no effect but to eliminate sleep from alternating nights and double sleep in the intervening nights? We would probably grouch about it for a while and then adapt to our new hedonistic lifestyle of partying or working hard. On the other hand, imagine the virus had the effect of eliminating normal sleep but instead, every 2 minutes, a person would fall asleep for a minute. This would be disastrous! Besides the most immediate problems like safely driving vehicles, how would anything get done? You would hold a meeting and at any point, a third of the participants would be asleep. If the virus made it instead 2 hours on, one hour off, that would be better but still problematic: there would be constant interruptions. And so on, until we reach our present state of 16 hours on, 8 hours off. Given that we rejected all the earlier buffer sizes, one wonders if 16:8 can be defended as uniquely suited to circumstances. Is that optimal? It may be, given the synchronization with the night-day cycle, but I wonder; rush hour alone stands as an argument against synchronized sleep - wouldn’t our infrastructure would be much cheaper if it only had to handle the average daily load rather than cope with the projected peak loads? Might not a longer cycle be better? The longer the day, the less we are interrupted by sleep; it’s a hoary cliche about programmers that they prefer to work in long sustained marathons during long nights rather than sprint occasionally during a distraction-filled day, to the point where some famously adopt a 28 hour day (which evenly divides a week into 6 days). Are there other occupations which would benefit from a 20 hour waking period? Or 24 hour waking period? We might not know because without chemical assistance, circadian rhythms would overpower anyone attempting such schedules. It certainly would be nice if one had long time chunks in which could read a challenging book in one sitting, without heroic arrangements.↩
The beneficial effects as well as the potentially serious side effects of these drugs can be understood in terms of their effects on the catecholamine neurotransmitters dopamine and norepinephrine (Wilens, 2006). These neurotransmitters play an important role in cognition, affecting the cortical and subcortical systems that enable people to focus and flexibly deploy attention (Robbins & Arnsten, 2009). In addition, the brain’s reward centers are innervated by dopamine neurons, accounting for the pleasurable feelings engendered by these stimulants (Robbins & Everett, 1996).
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I was contacted by the Longecity user lostfalco, and read through some of his writings on the topic. I had never heard of LLLT before, but the mitochondria mechanism didn’t sound impossible (although I wondered whether it made sense at a quantity level14151617), and there was at least some research backing it; more importantly, lostfalco had discovered that devices for LLLT could be obtained as cheap as $15. (Clearly no one will be getting rich off LLLT or affiliate revenue any time soon.) Nor could I think of any way the LLLT could be easily harmful: there were no drugs involved, physical contact was unnecessary, power output was too low to directly damage through heating, and if it had no LLLT-style effect but some sort of circadian effect through hitting photoreceptors, using it in the morning wouldn’t seem to interfere with sleep.
Coconut oil was recommended by Pontus Granström on the Dual N-Back mailing list for boosting energy & mental clarity. It is fairly cheap (~$13 for 30 ounces) and tastes surprisingly good; it has a very bad reputation in some parts, but seems to be in the middle of a rehabilitation. Seth Robert’s Buttermind experiment found no mental benefits to coconut oil (and benefits to eating butter), but I wonder.
The Smart Pills Technology are primarily utilized for dairy products, soft drinks, and water catering in diverse shapes and sizes to various consumers. The rising preference for easy-to-carry liquid foods is expected to boost the demand for these packaging cartons, thereby, fueling the market growth. The changing lifestyle of people coupled with the convenience of utilizing carton packaging is projected to propel the market. In addition, Smart Pills Technology have an edge over the glass and plastic packaging, in terms of environmental-friendliness and recyclability of the material, which mitigates the wastage and reduces the product cost. Thus, the aforementioned factors are expected to drive the Smart Pills Technology market growth over the projected period.
3 days later, I’m fairly miserable (slept poorly, had a hair-raising incident, and a big project was not received as well as I had hoped), so well before dinner (and after a nap) I brew up 2 wooden-spoons of Malaysia Green (olive-color dust). I drank it down; tasted slightly better than the first. I was feeling better after the nap, and the kratom didn’t seem to change that.
Starting from the studies in my meta-analysis, we can try to estimate an upper bound on how big any effect would be, if it actually existed. One of the most promising null results, Southon et al 1994, turns out to be not very informative: if we punch in the number of kids, we find that they needed a large effect size (d=0.81) before they could see anything:
The majority of nonmedical users reported obtaining prescription stimulants from a peer with a prescription (Barrett et al., 2005; Carroll et al., 2006; DeSantis et al., 2008, 2009; DuPont et al., 2008; McCabe & Boyd, 2005; Novak et al., 2007; Rabiner et al., 2009; White et al., 2006). Consistent with nonmedical user reports, McCabe, Teter, and Boyd (2006) found 54% of prescribed college students had been approached to divert (sell, exchange, or give) their medication. Studies of secondary school students supported a similar conclusion (McCabe et al., 2004; Poulin, 2001, 2007). In Poulin’s (2007) sample, 26% of students with prescribed stimulants reported giving or selling some of their medication to other students in the past month. She also found that the number of students in a class with medically prescribed stimulants was predictive of the prevalence of nonmedical stimulant use in the class (Poulin, 2001). In McCabe et al.’s (2004) middle and high school sample, 23% of students with prescriptions reported being asked to sell or trade or give away their pills over their lifetime.
One might suggest just going to the gym or doing other activities which may increase endogenous testosterone secretion. This would be unsatisfying to me as it introduces confounds: the exercise may be doing all the work in any observed effect, and certainly can’t be blinded. And blinding is especially important because the 2011 review discusses how some studies report that the famed influence of testosterone on aggression (eg. Wedrifid’s anecdote above) is a placebo effect caused by the folk wisdom that testosterone causes aggression & rage!
American employers are already squeezing more productivity out of fewer workers, so one wonders whether we might feel pressure to enhance our brainpower pharmaceutically, should the state of the art develop so far. Already, workers may be tempted to seek prescriptions for Provigil, a drug that treats daytime sleepiness. Provigil was originally approved as a treatment for narcolepsy and was subsequently approved for use by people who work swing shifts and suffer from excessive daytime sleepiness.
The majority of studies seem to be done on types of people who are NOT buying nootropics. Like the elderly, people with blatant cognitive deficits, etc. This is analogous to some of the muscle-building research but more extreme. Like there are studies on some compound increasing muscle growth in elderly patients or patients with wasting, and supplement companies use some of those studies to back their supplements.